Your handicapping skills are atrocious Steve!

Have you watched the run against Little Josh? on his first run back from an injury, over a trip at least half a mile short of his best, giving 6 pounds to the Paddy Power winner who is now rated 155?

Well his arse was about a quarter length in front, but his head was fully back on the bob while Little Joshs nose was down on the line, hes going away after the line and it was an ideal prep run for a Hennessy.

Taking into acount he basically beat a 155 horse giving 6 pounds over an inadequate trip on his first run back from an injury, he starts to look well handicapped off 156. I believe this horse can run to a mark of somewhere in the mid 160s on Saturday and if im right, he will take a bit of beating. Hes a straightforward horse, and a smart jumper, gets from a to b quickly and he has bags of stamina. Hes improving and he looks a perfect Hennessy horse.

If you want to talk about formlines, he beat Knockara Beau 2 1/2 quite comfortably off levels over 3m1 and Knockara Beau went on to run less than a length behind Burton Port in the RSA after making 3 or 4 mistakes.

If Weird Al never picked up an injury before Cheltenham, ive no doubt he would have finished infront of Burton Port. I know I called Burton Port a plodder but clearly he isnt, hes a good horse, but to me Wierd Al has the better profile and is open to the most improvement. And I just think he has that bit more spark about him.

Well see what happens, nothings a cert in a Hennessy, especially one as wide open as this but i cant see the logic behind laying Weird Al for a place. I see the logic of backing him at 6/1 though.

The formline you are referring to is when Burton Port beat Knockara 4 lengths at Ascot? This is your basis for thinking he has plenty in hand of Wierd Al. Watch the race again m8, Knockara Beau literally walked through 5 fences that day, his jumping was shocking and it cost him alot more than 2 lengths.

Wierd Al also has the benefit of a perfect prep run this season where as Burton Port is first time out after quite a tough season last year. And lets see if Geraghty can do the wieght, he may well end up a pound over and add that to the 4 pounds Burton Port is already out of the handicap and by my calculations, that would make him 5 pounds wrong at the weights.

Thought id remind you also, a certain Diamond Harry gave Burton Port a stone and an easy beating over hurdles.

Im all over Weird Al at 6/1

Im going over to Coral tomorrow to have a little e/w on Weird Al for the Gold Cup at 25/1

Outside the top 3 there isnt much and were he to win the Hennessy he would half in price at least.

May be crazy and it might be a year too early for him but i like the horse alot and think he could be the new kid on the block. Hes only had 6 runs should have alot of improvement in him.

Got to take that 12/1 Denman with Ladbrokes aswell, looks a great e/w bet for the Gold Cup.

and knockara beau made several mistakes in the race weird al won. thats the type of horse it is.

dont get me wrong weird al is a very good horse, but i just don't think its up to the hennessy.

we'll see on saturday anyhow.

He made 1 mistake at teh 3rd last, and it was no where near as bad as any of the 5 against Burton Port

Do you even watch races?

i certainly do.
he made 4 jumping errors in the race against weird al.
3 major errors.
hit a fence hard early and ran through the last.
your throwing your money away.
anyway not arguing over it any more, you'll see tomorrow.

You must be watching a different race, im talking about at wetherby over the relevent trip of 3m1 not the race at cheltenham over 2m4.

lol why would you be using that race at 2m4 rather than the race at the relevent trips?

As I say, your handicapping skills are shocking and your telling me im throwing money away.

yeah im talking about the wetherby race.
watch it again.
hits 3rd or 4th, blunders at the 7th and whacks the last.

im having a go on celestial halo today too. nice price.

I dont see that and it seems the formbook didnt either....

I was planning on backing Celestial Halo but i dont know now. Hes went to nearly 6/4 on Betfair and he should be 1/2 if hes winning today. There seems to be alot of confidence behind this Spirit River and hes porbably more of a chaser than Celestial Halo.

I honestly dont know what to do now, that race has puggled me. Celestial Halo seemed to be jumping quite well but how he fell like that I dont know, he wasnt under pressure or anything and it was a dissappointing fall. On hurdles form obviously, Celestial Halo looks different class but Spirit River has only had a few runs and was always going to be a chaser. I think I might leave that race out now and just leave my 10er e/w on Elusive Award tonight. Lot of good horses running over the weekend that i want to back like Mikael Dhagunet and Solwhit and i dont really want to do a 40 on Celestial Halo.

If Celestial Halo wins ill be pissed that I bottled it but think i have to let it go.

it just screams out value to me.
i wouldn't be backing it at 1/2 but this is a very fair price.

watching this race just now, never touched the 3rd and the 4rth was probably his best jump of the race, jumped the 5th nice aswell. IM actually watching it just now. Jumped the 6th nice, slighly awkward at 7th but barely lost an inch and you couldnt call it a blunder, especially by this horses standard. Jumped the 8th brialliant. Jumping the 10th fine, commentator has remarked twice in the last 50 seconds that Knockara Beau is "jumping well". Jumped the 12th nice, still no blunders. Jumped 5 out nice, went trough the top of 4 out but didnt lose any ground, went through 3 out, his worst jump of the race, jumped the second last much better took off a bit early at the last but got over fine when already beaten.

lol So he probably put in the best round of his life this day

very poor celestial halo.

2 bad jumps cost him the race, Spirit River jumps round he would probably have won but on this evidence Celestial Halo isnt a chaser and with jumping as weak as that in a softish race, he has no chance in hell of winning an Arkle.

bad luck.
looked like it was traveling well through 3/4 of the race. few bad jumps and curtains.

Always a good race for pointers to the gold cup. At the weights Denman was the man! So I guess Paul Nicholls has all the aces. Liked the way Diamond Harry was so confidentely ridden and found more when needed and also liked the way Burton Port was staying on looks like he wants further. But at the weights don`t think we saw the gold cup winner.