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Stats are not everything
http://startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=7139		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  akhc [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Stats are not everything
Probably something some already understand but I've been trying to prove/disprove this at least to myself.

Here's a horse I bred with a game horse. When I saw the 2 yr old I thought this would be a good test of the above.

To set the scene the gamebred stallion (Something Exciting) ran a then 6f record of 1:7:80ish on a firm track and ran another 1/2 dozen races where it clocked 1:8:10-50 at 6f and also set the fastest time for 1m at 1:35:12. By any measure a horse that can run fast repeatedly. So I imported a few mares to breed with this and was resolved to run them regardless of what the stats showed.

Here's what I found so far. The horse has just set the fastest 6f time in game albeit erasing it's sire's record.

Image

And here are the detailed stats - make of it what you will :P

Image
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
mate i have found out breeding for the lge the new stats bars mean very little the only one i take seriously is the potential
which DOES GO UP i have noticed it takes until a horse is 5 to reach its max ability

i dont even race 2yo now
and protect my 3yo
and race my 4yo test them to the limit

getting really good results

have got 4 games running all concentrating on sprinters all different familys
mix and match and getting some ck monsters now
still 2secs of my target of 56secs and 1min8secs
Author:  akhc [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
Yup I've got a mix of horses (statswise) some of which look great and some which look crap.

Here's the frustrating thing. There are some distances where I've hit CK standard times - 7f/1m2f/1m4f. But I simply cannot get to CK standard times at say 5f/1m and lord knows I've tried. I know others have posted saying they've hit CK standard at 1m. Maybe it's just my lines but I've restarted breeding 3x now. First due to HD crash and then second and third times to try and hit CK at 1m. This latest trial is simply to see if I've been reading too much into stats and it maybe I have but it still doesn't explain how I can hit CK standard times at some distances and not others.
Author:  pjrhodes1970 [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
are you hitting standard times that scatters put up last season
at ascot on good 3yo up

if you are hit them times already that is impressive took me 3months playing 4 - 8 hours a day last season to hit scatters time of 57secs for 5f and thats just 1 distance

if you are really hitting them times for all those disatnce you are going to clean up in lge so i would not worry

and you still have at least over 8 weeks b4 it starts

EDIT

1. Location is UK
2. Racecourse is Ascot
3. Going is Good
4. Age is always 3yo+
5. Sex is open company
6. Race type is G1

TIMES
1000m 5f – 57.5s to 57.0s
1200m 6f – 1.10.50s to 1.10.0s
1400m 7f – 1.23.80s to 1.23.30s
1600m 1m – 1.38.80s to 1.38.40s
2000m 1m2– 2.7.50s to 2.7.0s
2400m 1m4 – 2.33.50s to 2.33.0s
2800m 1m6 – 3.5.80s to 3.4.80s

EDIT mate are you hitting these times with the conditions above
if you are you are in for many winners
Author:  GGBall [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
That is one light horse, I can't recall seeing a horse that light off the top of my head.

I had some horses with max potential, max extra speed, consistency etc... which never reached the dizzy heights of many G1 wins.

I have tried different ways of running, distances, jockeys with and without instructions and sometimes the horse just does not seem to perform as well as you expect it too.

I think that it is good that there are no guarantees a horse who has great stats will actually ever become great. You could put this down to the horse not having the right mentality/attitude etc..

Just because someone is 8 foot tall doesn't mean he/she will be great at basketball ;)
Author:  The Duke [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
The only stats I take notice of is finish application, and potential the rest although look nice don't mean an awful lot from what I've gathered.
Author:  craigibhoy [ Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
maybe mark should make the stats mean something like in football manager if a striker had 14 shooting then he wudnt be good at shooting etc, id like for all the stats to mean something.
Author:  akhc [ Fri Jul 20, 2012 12:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
are you hitting standard times that scatters put up last season
at ascot on good 3yo up

1. Location is UK
2. Racecourse is Ascot
3. Going is Good
4. Age is always 3yo+
5. Sex is open company
6. Race type is G1

TIMES
1000m 5f – 57.5s to 57.0s
1200m 6f – 1.10.50s to 1.10.0s
1400m 7f – 1.23.80s to 1.23.30s
1600m 1m – 1.38.80s to 1.38.40s
2000m 1m2– 2.7.50s to 2.7.0s
2400m 1m4 – 2.33.50s to 2.33.0s
2800m 1m6 – 3.5.80s to 3.4.80s



Have horses that will run those times at 7/10/12/14f with the conditions above. If not for HD crash would have them for 6f too. These are the same homebreds that have posted the times in your fastest SO5 times thread. Not worrying about league. As folk have posted you simply send the fastest horses you have. I just can't fathom why 1m is so elusive that's all.
Author:  leonvr [ Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Stats are not everything
extra speed rating is important. If that is low the horse is normally useless.

Ground adaptability especially for the league and NH is important. Found firm ground horses winning on heavy if that is 100%

Distance adaptability is a really good bar especially for 1m3, 1m5 and 1m1 horses. Have the same 1m3 horse recording best times in ck over 10 and 12 furlongs. He has a full distance adaptability bar.

Finishing application seems more important than battling bar. Have horses with a full finishing application bar and no battling qualities show battling qualities to my eye in races.

Have sold juveniles each year with low potential and/or low speed rating and they have yet to progress to Group 1 winners. Speed rating is a better indicator in a juvenile as the potential bar increases especially in stayers
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