
Re: Race Previewers Discussion Wk 3
5 Newmarket Dont Blink Handicap 5 0-110 Turf Good to Firm 3up Open 40000
Don't blink! Or you're liable to miss this race. You might want to use toothpicks to keep your eyelids open. The Don't Blink 0-110 handicap at Newmarket promises to have a fast early pace with more than half the entrants wanting to be near or on the lead. I hear you saying it's five furlongs and speed should rule at this short distance. But this is at Newmarket where the final furlong is uphill and testing. Come the final furlong there should be someone who swoops down on the tiring leaders and takes the winners share.
My opinion of the top four contenders...
Crown Colonies from the Bourne To Win yard for trainer Greaver is the clear favorite and topweight off of her second place finish in week twos race twenty behind powerhouse trainer Akhc's 3yo filly Domnu. The 3yo filly possesses a late kick suitable for the expected fast early pace. Carrying top weight and running on an unfavorable surface may be just enough to keep her from the winners circle.
False Witness for Leon Van Rensburg made a nice run at the end in race 1 week 1 and then showed speed in race 26 week 2. Which style False Witness runs today will make all the difference. Show speed and lose? Come off the pace and win? Carrying a higher weight and an unfavorable surface won't help.
Kate Middleton for Simpleminds exits the same race as Crown Colonies where the 5yo mare rallied nicely but made no ground in the end. A faster pace and the firmer surface play to her favor.
Forte running for the author has only one run. A somewhat deceiving twelfth place finish in week twos second race. Forte was running at the end but was comprimised by a slow early pace and soft conditions. A cut back to 5 furlongs and the firmer surface has this trainer quietly confident of at a least a placing - if not the win.
An explanation of "run. style" in the above graphic. You can keep this out of the preview.
I like to assign a horse one of seven running styles. My best guesstimate of their preferred running style.
F (Front) = Strictly a frontrunner
FW (Front/With) = Frontrunner who occasionally can rate just off the leader
WF (With/Front) = Prefers running just off the leader and who occasionally runs on the lead
W (With) = Strictly runs just off leader
WO (With/Off) = Prefers running off the pace but nearer to front than back
OW (Off/With) = Prefers running off the pace but nearer to back than front
O (Off) = Strictly off the pace and at the back of the pack