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 Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ? 
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
EXAMPLE
Winner plus any horses finishing within a length (or even half length) of the winner get the full maiden rating of 125. (not just the winner)
Then any horse that finishes no closer than a length to the winner but no further than 2 lengths from the winner gets a lower rating. (minus 5?)
Then any horse that finishes no closer than 2 lengths to the winner but no further than 3 lengths gets a lower rating again (another minus 5?) than the previous and so forth til say 10 lengths from the winner - (which would make it 75) then after that a blanket low rating (60?)

From there I think the handicappers have to be vigilant on all the horses in Listed to G1 and if any horse puts two bad runs together then maybe drop them down to a rating that the handicapper deems to be fair. The beauty of this game is there is no way to nobble or pull up your horses so it would at least make it easier for the handicappers to make and educated decision.
I guess it would be a lot of work for the handicappers.


Tue Nov 29, 2016 12:26 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I may be passing on information you all know already here so if I am I apologise.

The problem here is that in reality a handicapper does not rate horses that run in one maiden race, other than the winner. What they do is take the best run of the three qualifiers and adjust dependant on the way the form of the three races is holding up. In effect they are retrospectively re rating every race as and when needed. In real life this is a full time job for over half a dozen people so it is not possible for someone volunteering to do that. If you are going to allow handicap entry after just one run then obviously you need to agree on a start point such as the 125 for a winner. However you cant really just apply set ratings for horses that come 2nd 3rd 4th etc. You have to apply proper handicap rules to the others or your handicap is always going to be off.

Once that first race is in the book and a horse is rated that then becomes the floating start point for the living handicap. You probably all know this already but I will paste in the notes from the official BHA handicap guide at the end of this post. Generally a winner will go up at least six pounds but the rest of the handicap is not based on the winner but on the horse the handicapper believes to be the most realistic yardstick, or in other words the one that has run closest to its supposed ability. That can be as simple as horse 4 finishing 4th as the fourth highest in the handicap ability wise is the fourth best horse. Once the handicapper has decided on his yardstick then it is easy to adjust the ratings of the other horses and explains why (in very simple terms) the top weight finishing third can go down in the handicap whilst the bottom weight finishing 4th can go up. He will also disregard a ridiculously bad run especially if it is out of character or down to ground/trip suitability. This is where you hear analysts saying 'the handicapper will just put a line through that' etc

In this league set up we need horses to move up and down the handicap far more quickly than in reality so it is important that the handicapper is allowed to use his gut judgement to make justifiable changes to handicap ratings based on what he sees in the race rather than just the result.

As most of you seem to regard week one maidens as Group races would it be a good idea to make some of them group races. For example instead of having all open maidens why not have Group 3 maidens/classic trials in the first week and put in a caveat that you are only allowed to run in G1 races up to a specific time, say after the Guineas week, if you have either run in a group 3 maiden or finished 1,2,3 in an open maiden. This would allow for smaller fields in some of the open maidens. Give some of the newer/lesser trainers an early shot at a group prize and also make the early group races more competitive and generate more horse rivalries. Basically in a nutshell if you thought you had a potential group horse put it in a G3 maiden. If you thought you had just a handicapper place it in an open maiden. How much more intriguing would the Guineas and Derby be if they were packed with open maiden winners going up against the big guns from the G3 maidens. You may say what is to stop people from putting potential group horses in open maidens and the answer to that is nothing at all except that a bad run down the field could result in you not being eligible for early G1s and the fact that as a well spirited group of people you 'play the game' with a straight bat as you all want the league to be competitive and interesting.

Sorry for rambling, here is the BHA guide which makes interesting reading:

CALCULATING PERFORMANCE FIGURES
Performance figures can be considered as the building blocks of handicap ratings. They are calculated for each performance and are ultimately used to produce handicap ratings. In producing performance figures for the horses that have participated in any particular race, the Handicapper will tend to identify one or more ‘yardstick’ or ‘marker’ horses through which the level of the race is established. These will generally be horses that the Handicapper believes have run in recent performances to the same level as in the current race, or have performed in the current race to the same level as their current handicap rating. After finding the most plausible fit with the yardstick horse(s), the relativity between them and the other runners is interpreted by the Handicapper according to an approximate pounds-per-length conversion (illustrated below) and adjusted for the weights carried: Flat
5f: 3lbs per length
6f: 2.5lbs per length
7f-8f: 2lbs per length
9-10f:1.75lbs per length
11-13f:1.5lbs per length
14f:1.25lbs per length
15f+:1lb per length

Jump 1lb per length is used in most instances except over very long distances or on very testing ground.

Depending on which yardstick horse is selected, a wide range of interpretations of the merits of a particular race is possible. Experience shows that in handicaps of between 11 and 13 runners, for example, on average only two or three horses will have performed to a level that exceeds their handicap rating. This may not be the case in non-handicap races, which in many instances will have a much wider range of possible interpretations. When compiling performance figures, the recent form of horses going into the race is obviously taken into account. Many other factors are considered such as whether or not a particular horse’s form is progressive or regressive, and whether or not a particular horse is consistent or inconsistent. Reference is made to a horse’s highest recent handicap ratings and performance figures; where the performance figures for the race under consideration exceed the ‘ran off’ handicap rating (i.e. the rating on which the weight to be carried by the horse had been calculated), the Handicapper will decide to what extent such ‘improvement’ is plausible. The Handicapper’s general aim in assessing the merit of each race is to narrow the envelope of possible interpretations in order to obtain the most reasonable and plausible assessment.

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:06 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
jalupen wrote:
totally agree with this 125 is spot on i personally dont run in hcapps except week 13 but then i am 1 of the try hards!



:lol: im a try hard trainer who needs to flippin TRY HARDER :lol:


I must fall into this category then. Image

Well u can see I might be in the category but I don't really belong in it because as u can see I've gone long spells without breeding anything.

My teacher always put on my report Could try harder, by the look of it I could. :? I'm a C- type person. :cry:


Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:02 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
279 ttf files and thats only one of many folders ha ha


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Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:25 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Paul I think we not trying hard enough, we all could do with a boot up our backside.

The only time I've bred after march was around the 10-sep to the 20 sep when I was trying to get the Mighty Allegro beaten and I failed at that, she's still the best stayer I've got.

I've enjoyed the start to the league because its the first time I've not put the time in ( life can be a bleep) and I've enjoyed just seeing what my horses could do without the pressure, and this game can take u away from whats going on in real life.

Loving every second of this season win or lose.


Tue Nov 29, 2016 7:49 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Would the rest of the trainers like to describe briefly how they play the game? I'm just curious. I babble so this won't be brief.

From when I got the game SO6 and the previous versions too I would start and restart new games until I got a good starter horse. I'd play that game until I had a bunch of transfers in my pool to go and start other games. From there I start breeding to increase certain stats and increase the amount of horses at many distances.

This whole time I am exporting horses for the league. Then with a good amount of horses for a lot of distances I trial these horses to find who is fastest. From there these trial winners become my breeding base. I then start the stat building again.

Two years ago I went to allocating each save slot for a certain distance and then I would play games designed for getting horses at just that distance. I may play a 10 to 20 year season and then move on to another distance.

Throughout all of this and since I've always had the game I run my horses at 2, 3 and 4. 5 in the old days. Then they hit the transfer pool. I love the racing careers in game of my horses. Getting an undefeated career is still a hard challenge and I breed middle to slightly above average league horses. Manual training to boot...

My TTF file collection of horses is probably in the very top level of hardcore players. A folder for each breeding range with 1 ttf file in each. That's a grand total of 8 ttf files.

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:22 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I don't have TTF files with certain distances I mix and Match and Breed Jumpers with Flat horses and Vice versa I have one TTF Called Stayers which I tried to be Grand National horses it's failed I breed Good horses with Good Horses in the breeding Barn I will breed Sprinter with Sprinter but I like to switch around and I have breed Sprinter with a stayer I just keep the Best horse's at 4 From the Flat and 5 from the jumps at the end of the season and put them into the ttf file I have a couple of Flat and a Couple of Jumps ttf but I will load all files in each code and transfer into games and I don't consider myself a Constant Breeder both my league horses have come from the Two games I got going and both are currently on 13 seasons so to me constantly having nee games is a waste of time I plod along enjoying my game if I kept restarting I would get fed up tha's how I play.

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:57 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I don't really have a system.

When I have a new game the only thing I worry about is getting my 3yo's full potential bars. I don't have anything over jumps apart from splitting my jumpers, so I only breed hurdlers with hurdlers and chasers with chasers.

My jumpers are 99% bred jumpers, every once in a while I'll try my flat horses over jumps to see if I can put some new blood into my lines. After the window closed I tried my flat stayers over hurdles and fences and my one Horse called Celeric ( one of my fav horses of all time) smashed my 2miler chases and when I get around to some breeding i'll put him in my breeding barn otherwise he might be put in my team ( but I might have used his name before) so I might not be allowed to use him.

Gray I've never breed that far apart, I would only breed my sprinters to my milers.


Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:09 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
breed 30 horses trial them keep the best and repeat and repeat and repeat


Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:20 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
ghostzapper74 wrote:
I don't really have a system.

When I have a new game the only thing I worry about is getting my 3yo's full potential bars. I don't have anything over jumps apart from splitting my jumpers, so I only breed hurdlers with hurdlers and chasers with chasers.

My jumpers are 99% bred jumpers, every once in a while I'll try my flat horses over jumps to see if I can put some new blood into my lines. After the window closed I tried my flat stayers over hurdles and fences and my one Horse called Celeric ( one of my fav horses of all time) smashed my 2miler chases and when I get around to some breeding i'll put him in my breeding barn otherwise he might be put in my team ( but I might have used his name before) so I might not be allowed to use him.

Gray I've never breed that far apart, I would only breed my sprinters to my milers.



I don't spilt mine Misbeat who won the grade 1 Chase is out of Last seasons Chaser Allied Newcastle and Non League hurdler Grey Mischief.

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:22 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Your thoughts please on how I handicapped the peculiar 8th race. One in which I won. The Group 3 Dalia. I had noticed a few hours before the deadline that this race came up real light. To me light = No ghost,thunder,pj,harrison or jalupen. It's just how I think. Avoid those trainers horses at all costs. A short field with bad form was a big plus.

These horses and mine I thought would dawdle in the first half and my horse would love that. Plus the course was listed good and my horses usually do better from good to firm to most especially dirt.

It worked out exactly how I envisioned...

Image

The ratings after...

Image

In my mind a 10 point raise is what I give the most impressive winners. Delfinium got a 93. From there I determine the ratings by beaten lengths for the rest of the field working down from 93. These are the ratings at face value with Delfinium's rating being true.

Delfinium - 93
Just A Craze - 89
Super Who - 85
Alder's End - 84
Devious Diva - 79
Perfect Man - 77
Curtains Tilly - 74

Using a horses previous rating I determine the number of ratings points difference and then meet somewhere in the middle on how many points to add/subtract.

Delfinium - 93 - 83 = 93
Just A Craze - 89 - 104 = 101
Super Who - 85 - 75 = 83
Alder's End - 84 - 102 = 94
Devious Diva - 79 - 114 = 100
Perfect Man - 77 - 103 = 93
Curtains Tilly - 74 - 72 = 74

1. Delfinium - My horse. Totally thrashed in two starts. Get's the perfect setup. 10 points up.

2. Just A Craze - middle ground was 7/8 points. This was a graded race. She did finish second in a graded race. BUT this was a glorified handicap race at even weights and she lost to an 83 rated horse with no form whatsoever. 3 points down.

3. Super Who - Super Who? That's what the bettors said when the tote board lit up. Goose egg form the first two weeks and then she scores graded money. Further evidence of this poor field. 5 points the middle. Gets a 3 point raise.

4.Alder's End - A return from last season and either Follis can't find the right spot or he is addicted to running in group races. This aint no 102. Middle is 9 points. 8 down

5. Devious Diva - One to beat. Group placed. Destined to be 6th best in most group races. Get's a cherry ripe Group 3 and lost to my donkey. This horse needs a break. Middle is 17.5 points. 14 down.

6. Perfect Man - Came in off a decent debut. Should've been competitive against these? middle is 13 points. 10 points off.

7. Curtains Tilly - No form to date. None today. It was a grade 3 and she was mildy competitive. Up 2 points.

I tried the same way with this advice from Lordedaw and the results were quite similar. My point scale is a little less but I will adopt this scale more.

Quote:
CALCULATING PERFORMANCE FIGURES
Performance figures can be considered as the building blocks of handicap ratings. They are calculated for each performance and are ultimately used to produce handicap ratings. In producing performance figures for the horses that have participated in any particular race, the Handicapper will tend to identify one or more ‘yardstick’ or ‘marker’ horses through which the level of the race is established. These will generally be horses that the Handicapper believes have run in recent performances to the same level as in the current race, or have performed in the current race to the same level as their current handicap rating. After finding the most plausible fit with the yardstick horse(s), the relativity between them and the other runners is interpreted by the Handicapper according to an approximate pounds-per-length conversion (illustrated below) and adjusted for the weights carried: Flat
5f: 3lbs per length
6f: 2.5lbs per length
7f-8f: 2lbs per length
9-10f:1.75lbs per length
11-13f:1.5lbs per length
14f:1.25lbs per length
15f+:1lb per length

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:48 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Delfinium - 104
Just A Craze - 104
Super Who - 101
Alder's End - 100
Devious Diva - 108
Perfect Man - 100
Curtains Tilly - 78

That's what I would have done. I would have used Just a craze as a bench mark. I would have dropped Devious 6 pounds because he's had good form before but ran poorly this time.


Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:03 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
A 21 point raise for winning a group race in name only??? The race itself doesn't warrant that. It's maybe a 100 handicap at best.

I was rated 83 after two runs and the 3rd place finisher was a 75. Not a firster - a third time starter.

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:11 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I see you put a lot of thought into me I make it simple lol your horses would be Raised to 110 min if it was a good race but its not so 100

Just Craze would get a hike placed in Group 3 up 108
Super Who Up 85 at least Penalty expected if running in group races

The next two are interesting because both run last Season

Alders End is a miler that spent most of its career in Group races I don't think James would mind me saying its a handicapper that's been penalised for running in Group Races I go along with the drop
Devious Diva placed in last seasons Group 1's Preakness 2nd Markel Nassau Stakes G1 2nd and end of Season and Breeders Cup Distaff 3rd Clearly a horse with ability but not the force at this age it was I would Drop it but 14? I would play safe drop 8

Perfect Man Drop 10 is a bit steep if it was a handicap yes but its levels in a group race 5 at most the bottom clearly out of death leave alone there is no science in my method just gut reaction Sirius and a bit of knowledge I think although its a great placing by you either I am a stupid handicapper letting your horse have a rating of 83 or it goes to show the game is Pants lol.

Gray

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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:15 pm
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Post Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I don't think u can look at the trainers names to rate a race u got to look at past form.

Just a craze ran 6th- in the world cup and beaten 2L's . That's is well solid form so a rating of 104 is well fair.
Perfect Man 7th in a maiden and beaten 5L's is in the low 100's and that a fair mark.
Alders End finished a close 7th in the Lincoln of a low 100's - that's also fair.
Devious Diva has finished close enough in group races to rate him in the low 100's

Everything about that race says 100 ish.

So if u have a horse that was rated 80's and finishes with them then he has to have a rating like them.


Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:30 pm
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