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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2878
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Or I meet in the middle because one good race against a sub par group 3 does not automatically make a horse group 3 level horse. Drastic ratings jumps kill chances to move up the ladder in the proper company.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:34 pm |
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NPG319
Group 1 winner
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am Posts: 2498 Location: South Australia
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I think Martin has brought something to the table here that Sirius can work with and has based around his own thinking.
I say let Sirius run with his calculations - he thought his way through that race well - 1) by identifying a weak Group race with no big gun trainers and 2) realising the actual reality of the result for what it was and rating accordingly.
He obviously has spent some time with SO and understands the league and community so he has a good back ground to do the job.
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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:44 pm |
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simpleminds
Group 1 winner
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:56 pm Posts: 5746 Location: uk
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
SiriusChill wrote: Or I meet in the middle because one good race against a sub par group 3 does not automatically make a horse group 3 level horse. Drastic ratings jumps kill chances to move up the ladder in the proper company. To me you are allowing a group 3 Winner although it may be a bad Group race allow to run in 0-100 Handicaps if that horse was trained by a trainer well known say Paul Rhodes Sorry Paul using you has a example has a horse that performed badly got blocked couldn't get out then next won a Group 3 I think trainers would be asking Questions be it a bad race or not a group winner would be rated more than 90 ok your horse may then be overrated for most of the season but you decided to run it put it like this if that was my horse I would expect more than a 90 Rating but you are the Man if you think your right that's up to you but just having a chat we all got different opinions Sirius I will go along to what you think is best. Gray
_________________simple in mind but wonderful in young lifehttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNzbn9 ... idx5pNkHaQ
Last edited by simpleminds on Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:46 pm |
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Pommard
Group 2 winner
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 1:58 pm Posts: 779
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I think John (Ghost) has this pretty much spot on. And he rates my horse 7 pounds higher. If you take the gamble of running in a group race then a large hike is a risk you take. I took the gamble as it looked a weak race knowing that I may completely wreck my horses mark.
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Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:46 pm |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2878
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
NPG319 wrote: I think Martin has brought something to the table here that Sirius can work with and has based around his own thinking.
I say let Sirius run with his calculations - he thought his way through that race well - 1) by identifying a weak Group race with no big gun trainers and 2) realising the actual reality of the result for what it was and rating accordingly.
He obviously has spent some time with SO and understands the league and community so he has a good back ground to do the job. Thanks. I firmly believe there are a lot 100 type horses rated too high. I want to bring these horses down some to have more options. Say a first timer won the race - boom - The agreed upon rating would be around 115 - 125 I guess? Delfinium gets second. The rest their same placings. delfinium gets a 110 to 120 after two terrible races and an 83 rating? Instantly my horse is screwed for the season. A subjective analysis of a horse's performance and previous form is more important than a rigid rating guideline that says if you did this you have to get this.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:02 am |
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jalupen
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am Posts: 1288
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
think the points been made its a grp race you enter these at your own risk only thing im surprised is no one has tried to handicapp the try hard trainers stables or is that next?
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:06 am |
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SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2878
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Stop the try hard stuff please. Most people don't play like you. And they try hard...
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:12 am |
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follis86
Group 2 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:37 pm Posts: 853
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
'Addicted to running it in group races' I was hoping to get some prize money after seeing the weak field like you did Sirius. She is my flat stable star mind 
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:19 am |
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Cairns123
Handicapper
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2009 8:39 pm Posts: 403 Location: Failsworth
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Last year i based it on trying to find a yardstick for every race. So normally, i looked at 3/4/5th places and if they finished in a bunch for the minor places i could acknowledge that they were well handicapped, and i took them as my yardstick, as theoretically i was trying to handicap every horse to finish in that bunch. I Worked my way up to the winners, and down for the horses that finished behind the yardstick. This is a rare occasion where it was falsely run race and no doubt not all of the horses performed to their rating. I would have done:
Delfinium 109 (1.75 lengths equated to 5lbs) Just A Craze 104 (Yardstick) Super Who 99 (1.75 lengths behind equates to 5lbs) Alders End 99 (short head equates to 0lbs) Devious Diva 108 (Never dropped anything more than 6lbs) Perfect Man 97 (Same as Above) Curtains Tilly 88
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:22 am |
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jalupen
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am Posts: 1288
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
ok sorry only prob i can see is if the horse comes in a 0-95 and wins there will be a lot of unhappy people in fact if you are saying that a 0-95 is a better race than a grp3 or are you going to rewrite every horses mark accordingly?be interesting to follow the whole field
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:24 am |
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follis86
Group 2 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:37 pm Posts: 853
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
I must admit I like what you are trying to do Sirius and admire the hours you must be putting into this.
However, I think Alders End would be very competitive if dropped to 94. After all she did finish 7th in week 2 in the large field Lincoln off 102
Last edited by follis86 on Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:27 am |
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NPG319
Group 1 winner
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am Posts: 2498 Location: South Australia
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 Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Let's give Sirius a chance to get things right - the handful of examples of how 'you' would have done it are fine but at the end of the day Sirius was the one who put his hand up to volunteer his time.
The debate is fine but let's remember who has committed for the next 10 weeks and get behind him!
Like in real life racing - sometimes a horse gets dealt unfairly by the handicapper and sometimes a horse sneaks under the radar to the delight of connections and astute punters.
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:23 am |
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