A new feature coming each week for the rest of the season and then continuing next season from week three. One flat and one National Hunt race previewed each week.

Week 12 - Flat - Race 15 - Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares

1634 - Heart of Oak - Joshua Sutherland
Four times G1 winner will try and lead from the front. Drops a furlong in distance here which should help overcome a couple of disappointing performances by her standards. Very much the one to beat.

2P20 - Niggle Harriett - James Shea
Step up in class and distance. This G2 winner will look to fly home late but may be left with too much to do. Others look better.

1203 - Monterey Truth - Vinny Gerrard
Beat home Heart Of Oak three weeks ago in the Yorkshire Oaks when short head 2nd to Trapanga Bridge who doesn't run here. Definite player.

4153 - Leominda Nilly - James Shea
Fifth in the Arc two weeks ago and a length 2nd to Panga Orbs in the G1 Handicap Singapore Gold Cup last start. Better off in the weights here. Must be respected.

6557 - Valento Rider - Dan Hughes
Fifth in Yorkshire Oaks narrowly beating home Heart Of Oak. Likely to be near the rear of the field and could be left with too much to do. Others more persuasive.

4297 - Lihou Mosa - Dan Hughes
One and a quarter length 2nd to Heart of Oak in Irish Oaks three starts ago. Hasn't been a factor in two outings since. Drop in distance might suit. Represents stable's best chance.

3002 - Foreign Trade - Leon Van Rensburg
Second last time out in G1 Handicap Singapore Gold Cup when beaten three quarters of a length by Panga Orbs. Was a head better than Leominda Nilly in 3rd but is 11lbs worse off here to the James Sheas trained horse. Place chance.

6707 - Blown By The Wind - Derek Hinton
G1 Handicap winner earlier in the season who has struggled for form since. Needs to return to her best to be considered here.

9451 - Panga Orbs - Darren Thompson
G1 Handicap Singapore Gold Cup winner last time out beating home Foreign Trade and Leominda Nilly. Tougher ask here off level weights with those two.

2089 - Witch Of War - Leon Van Rensburg
Has made hard work of recent starts and is a step up in class on most outings this season. Looks firmly up against it here.


Week 12 - NH - Race 3 - Punchestown Champion Chase

4114 - The Pretty Boy - Joshua Sutherland
Disappointing 4th in the Queen Mother at Cheltenham last time out behind Alien Senator. Gets chance to make amends here. Strong claims.

70F1 - El Centro Rated - Vinny Gerrard
Won the Melling Chase at Aintree last week. Trip might be too short especially with the pace on. Was distant 11th to The Pretty Boy three weeks ago. Others appeal more for the win.

0271 - Alien Senator - Leon Van Rensburg
Excellent win in the Queen Mother last time out when five and a quarter lengths better than The Pretty Boy and gets to renew the rivalry here. Leading claims.

112F - Buck House - John Morgan
Lightly raced. Fell last time out when leading the Victor Chandler Chase. Likely to set a cracking pace. Ought to be thereabouts.

U434 - Swiss Princess - John Morgan
The second of two John Morgan horses, also lightly raced. Is a consistent type. Three and three quarter lengths 4th to The Pretty Boy last time out. Deserves consideration.

1506 - Gabriels Rhapsody - Darren Thompson
100-1 shot G2 winner of Desert Orchid Chase but got lost in a large field in the Queen Mother at Cheltenham. Smaller field here should suit. Not to be discounted.

90U0 - Daisy Padme - David Robertson
Has lost its way somewhat in recent weeks. Was going backwards when unseated rider second last in the Queen Mother. Others appeal more.

0199 - Royal Promise - C Beckwith
Ninth in the Queen Mother beating a couple of today's runners home. Has struggled in Grade races all season. Others preferred.

Love this, exactly what the forums need at times, especially as the season closes out. Hope people get involved to talk about their horses chances too


Monterey Truth in the Breeders Fillies. 1m3 is her optimum trip I think. Would have won the Arc but for the final furlong Although she did run 15 wide the entire race there. Has a tendency to get trapped wide in her races as that's her style/pace. Can't see her catching Heart of Oak here tbh

El Centro Rated has no chance over 2m, needs most of 2m5 really, but there were no other races

Love these. U need to put u Top 3 at the bottom of each one.

Thanks for the feedback, hopefully we can get a few more trainers to comment on their horses' chances.

Here's my 1-2-3...

Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares
1. Heart Of Oak
2. Monterey Truth
3.Leominda Nilly


Punchestown Champion Chase
1. Alien Senator
2. The Pretty Boy
3. Gabriels Rhapsody

Daisy Padme finished ahead of The Pretty Boy a couple of times early season but has been poor since.
Hoping she can find her old form and play a part in the finish.

I must admit I didn't go back to the start of the season, I'd still be doing it now if I did!!

Hope she finds her best form and has a good run

What a weird horse Monterey truth is. Lost 2 handicaps off 97, then gone on to win the Breeders Cup Fillies. Along with some other much improved group form towards the end. Definitely a season of 2 Halves for her

Will try and get two form guides posted again this week if time permits, but there are a lot of big fields!!

For now here's one for the flat. The 2m Melbourne Cup from Flemington. Race 24 on your card...

1512 - Bellringer - Joshua Sutherland - 10-0
Top performer but yet to land a G1. Joint top weight would suggest a tough ask to break that duck in a handicap. Others appear to be weighted better, but not to be discounted.

1131 - Million Vents - Darren Thompson - 10-0
Winner of Prix Royal Oak last week by 3/4L over Bellringer. Meets off same weight here but yet to win over 2m and others who were in the mix last week appear better off. Will be in the mix.

1110 - Yulin Potential - Vinny Gerard - 10-0
Arguably the best 3yo stayer this season. Two G1 wins including the St Leger. Big weight for a young horse and big question marks over the trip.

2723 - Dubious Debbie - Joshua Sutherland - 9-11
Meets Bellringer and Million Vents 3lbs better off after finishing 1 1/2L 3rd in Prix Royal Oak last week. Goodwood Cup winner earlier in the year on similar going. Strong claims.

4654 - Coroebus - Dan Hughes - 9-4
Fourth last week in the Prix Royal Oak when carrying top weight. Deserves consideration for that performance and a big drop in the weights here, but has not won over this trip.

6905 - Rocky Mountain Desert - Vinny Gerard - 8-13
Two and a half lengths 5th to Million Vents last week off level weights. Won on last trip down under in Sydney Cup and weighted well. Strong claims.

8200 - Tax Court - Leon Van Rensburg - 8-12
Has lost her way since 2nd in Irish St Leger three weeks ago. 5 1/4L 5th to Dubious Debbie in Goodwood Cup earlier in the season. Others would appear to have better claims.

2800 - Maximum Security - Paul Rhodes - 8-10
Half a length 2nd to Million Vents in the Ebor but hasn't backed it up since. Yet to race at this distance and is still a maiden. Each way chance at best.

3211 - Zafonic Belle - Grayham Clutterbuck - 8-8
Wily old handicapper having her second tilt at the Cup. In good form and stable knows how to win these but could do with further.

1571 - Scandanavia - Paul Rhodes - 8-7
Been running consistently well. Meets top weights much better off when 7th to Bellringer in British Long Distance Cup and 4th to Dubious Debbie in Goodwood Cup. Not to be overlooked.

7851 - Aldermoor Hichens - Padraig Hogan - 8-5
Winner last time out over 2m4f in Canada Crystal Cup. Distance here might to be too short to be a serious contender.

6398 - Sydney Money - David Robertson - 8-4
Eighth last week in the Prix Royal Oak beaten 5L by the winner Million Vents. Meets top weights here 24lbs better off this week. Has to be considered.

0699 - Hold Game - AJ Munas - 8-4
Lightly raced and not much form to go off to main rivals here. Struggled when 12th to Rocky Mountain Desert in the Sydney Cup earlier in the campaign. Others preferred.

7561 - Homeless - C Beckwith - 8-3
In good form having won G2H Chairmans Handicap last week. Step up in class here but off a good mark.

6460 - Imperceptibly - Leon Van Rensburg - 8-3
Has struggled in recent outings. 5 1/2L 6th to Bellringer in British Long Distance Cup off level weights. Is 25lbs better off here. A return to that form would see strong claims of a place finish here.

4509 - Battle Satire - AJ Munas - 8-1
Another lightly raced from the AJ Munas stable. 3L 4th to Rocky Mountain Desert in the Sydney Cup. Can't be dismissed off that form and with this weight.

4239 - Dictinas Pact - David Robertson - 7-10
Still a maiden but on best form off this low weight sees him have strong claims of a place.

4676 - Baltic October - Grayham Clutterbuck - 7-10
Oldest horse in the race, this consistent performer in G2 and handicap races is not to be dismissed off this weight. Stable knows how to win a two miler too.

2P11 - Crop Duster - Paul Parsons - 7-10
Needs another half mile but has been stable's top earner so deserves her spot in the field. Slightly out of the handicap here and no realistic chance with the firm going.

3943 - Dita - Martin Leedham - 7-10
Handy 3L 3rd to Zafonic Belle last week in Ladbrokes Marathon Final. Up in class here and out of the handicap.

0761 - Bold As Brass - Paul Parsons - 7-10
Big step up in class here, out of the handicap and hates the ground.

7052 - Horst Du Die Tronmein - Padraig Hogan - 7-10
3/4L 2nd last time out to Zafonic Belle in Ladbrokes Marathon Final. Too far out of the weights here.

0224 - Easter Sunday - Nick Driver - 7-10
Good handicap form in recent weeks after a slow start to the season but likely too far out of the weights to be considered.

0938 - Piper Niven - Matt Cooper - 7-10
Big step up in class and no form to speak of. Would be a major surprise if a factor here.

0455 - Silk Kimono - Alex Cherrie - 7-10
Likely to set the pace and lead them round the first circuit but outclassed and question marks over the trip. Hard to see her figuring.

1st. Rocky Mountain Desert
2nd. Sydney Money
3rd. Coroebus
4th. Battle Satire

A tough one to leave out Dubious Debbie, Million Vents and Bellringer but I think the difference in weights will be a telling factor.

If anyone else wants to try and pick a top four...feel free to give it a go!

1. Rocky mount desert
2. Tax Court
3. Zafonic belle
4. Bellringer

1st ... Dubious Debbi
2nd .. Yulin Potential
3rd .. Scandinavia
4th .. Bellringer

1st Bellringer
2nd Million Vents
3rd Dictinas Pact
4th Coroebus

Lot of weight for my girls, and they have what I like to consider a Josh rating, I have little hope with either.

Ive just gone an checked the ratings for you.

Bellringer 125 looks spot on. it hasn't been outside the top 2 once when running over its actual distance of 2miles. It was on 117 when it won a group2 involving all the best horses over 2 miles. it won that by nearly 3 lengths. It had already won a group2 earlier in the season when running off 110, because it had been running over the wrong distance. but by 1 an a half lengths this time.

Dubious Debbie off 122 seems fair - She's barely been outside the top 3 all season against the very best 2m horses. She's also won a group1 an 2 other group races


if anyone does have an issue with ratings, please just let me know. I'm more than happy to double check. There'll definitely be mistakes out there

Its not a moan, nor do I think any of my ratings are a problem and its an impossibly hard job, but the trainer will always know better (if he trialed well) which ones are too high or too low etc and where the racekit has thrown up a strange result, in addition to the way the like horses, distance, grade etc, run styles effect my own. Go to a point early season and Bellringer was well under rated, debbie an inferior horse was over rated from form, but I have always known which was consistently better and that played out in the final position. But I do think i jump higher than others at the time when these odities unwind themselves, probably fairly, besides a stable full of 120's is a new thing for me