
Re: which horses for which courses...have i worked it out?
You seem to sort of have it the wrong way around, though as Leon said it is horses for courses.
Technically a hold up horse over a suitable trip would be better at an undulating or testing track because it will mean that the front runners and those handy will be less likely to keep going to the line. For example a horse would find it easier coming from the back at Newbury with its long, stamina sapping straight than at Chester with its tight turns and short straight.
A front runner will be greatly advantaged by a sharp track with lots of turns because it will be able to get up the inside to take the shortest route, encounter no traffic problems, and it will give the others a shorter distance to make up ground in the final stretch.
You're right when you say that a hold up horse would have to be pretty special to win a race with a decent front runner from a slow pace. Just like a front runner would have to be pretty special to win a good race off a very fast pace.
It is horses for courses though, you couldn't expect a 6f horse to win over 1m2f at Chester just because Chester is a sharp track. Just like you couldn't expect a 2m horse to win over 1m2f at Newbury just because it has a stiff straight, though this example is more likely. Or a hold up horse who hates undulations wouldn't win at Cheltenham just because it is a stiff track meaning it is harder for front runners. Or a front runner who hates tight turns to win just because it is Chester which favours those who race handy.
In game, as others have said Even Pace or Race Handy, Don't Lead is the best tactic to breed into your horses because they can basically come from almost anywhere and shouldn't be too disadvantaged if the pace is slow or fast.
For example I would have reservations about entering a front runner at Cheltenham due to it being a stiff and undulating track, but at somewhere like Kempton or Newbury I would have no qualms entering. Although they can be stiff tracks they are less stamina sapping than Chelts and it is easier to win from the front on a flat track than an undulating one. A hold up horse would probably find Kempton harder to win around than Cheltenham because the undulations will slow the front ones down allowing your horse to make up ground and save stamina at the back. Whereas at Kempton they can quicken from the front and leave you standing, meaning you have to use more energy to stay in touch than you want to so you don't have a lot left for the straight.
As an example I have a double/triple Champion Hurdle winner who has really struggled to win the Christmas Hurdle because he is a hold up horse. At Cheltenham in the Champion he can stalk them and then go on 3 out and leave them for dust, but at Kempton in the Christmas they can quicken away from him and he struggles to peg them back. I also have a 3 miler who is a front runner, he has won the King George at Kempton twice, but I wouldn't dream of entering him in the Gold Cup because he just won't stay the trip on that course. The jockey tells me that the 2m5f in the Ryan Air is stretching his stamina, so there is no way he'd stay the Gold Cup trip, despite having won multiple G1's over 2m-3m1f.
I hope this makes sense...

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